J Mission
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Humans in space now13ISS 10 · Tiangong 3


FLAGSHIP11/100LEO + Cislunar Progress — how far we are toward a self-sustaining cislunar economy, on a 0–100 scale. The flagship index.CADENCE175Launch Cadence Index — How busy is orbit, and are we on record pace? The number is orbital launches worldwide so far this year — a running total, not a score out of 100.SPACEX49%SpaceX Dominance — How much of global launch is SpaceX? The number is SpaceX's share of this year's global orbital launches, in percent.GROWTH65/100Space-Economy Growth — How fast is the real space economy growing? The number is a 0–100 composite score of real space-activity growth for the latest full year.

J Mission

The Indexes

Deterministic space-economy indicators. Every figure is computed in code from cited sources and stamped 2026-07-21 — numbers are never invented; the commentary is AI-assisted. Not financial advice. See Methodology & Data Sources.

The J Mission Index · Flagship

How far are we to a self-sustaining cislunarCislunarThe region of space between Earth and the Moon, including lunar orbit — the arena J Mission tracks. economy?

11/ 1008/38 milestones · data 2025
11SELF-SUSTAINING ▸0255075100GAP TO MILESTONE · 89
Earth-to-Orbit Access 16.7%28
LEO Commercialization & Habitation 16.7%4
In-Space Logistics & Refueling 11.1%7
CislunarCislunarThe region of space between Earth and the Moon, including lunar orbit — the arena J Mission tracks. Transport 16.7%15
Lunar Surface Infrastructure 11.1%0
ISRU & Resource Use 11.1%0
Economic Self-Sufficiency 16.7%13
Earth-to-Orbit Access28/100

Cheap, abundant access to orbit — gated on cost per kg, because high cadence and reusabilityReusabilityRecovering and reflying rocket hardware instead of throwing it away — the key to cheaper access to space. are only means to that end. You don't know access is solved until the price falls.

Cost to orbit 2,720 $/kg to LEO28/100 toward target · Falcon 9 advertised list price to LEO, expendable ($62M ÷ 22,800 kg ≈ $2,720/kg), per NASA NTRS 20180007067 (H. Jones); reusable list is higher (~$4,300/kg) and internal/marginal cost lower. $100/kg is the aspirational Starship-class anchor (unproven). (as of 2026-06) source28
Routine orbital-class first-stage reuseReusabilityRecovering and reflying rocket hardware instead of throwing it away — the key to cheaper access to space. (Falcon 9Falcon 9SpaceX's partially reusable workhorse rocket — the most-flown orbital launcher in the world.) · 2017-03 source3
Fully & rapidly reusableReusabilityRecovering and reflying rocket hardware instead of throwing it away — the key to cheaper access to space. orbital vehicle operational (StarshipStarshipSpaceX's fully reusable super-heavy rocket, designed to slash the cost of reaching orbit and beyond.) · expected7
Launch cadenceLaunch cadenceHow frequently rockets launch — the pace of spaceflight. (scale signal) 325 launches/yr26/100 toward target · GCAT (J. McDowell)26
Upmass to orbitUpmassThe total mass of payloads launched to orbit — a measure of how much we're actually lifting into space. (scale signal) 2,833 tonnes/yr26/100 toward target · GCAT (J. McDowell)26
LEO Commercialization & Habitation4/100

From a single government station to long-term, high-scale habitation — and ultimately a LEO economy that pays for itself without a government anchor tenantAnchor tenantA large, reliable customer — often a government — whose guaranteed business makes a venture financially viable..

Continuous human presence in LEO (ISS) · 2000-11 source2
First commercial free-flyerFree-flyerA space-station module that orbits on its own rather than being attached to a larger station. module in orbit (Vast Haven-1) · ~2027 source2
First independent commercial station operational · ~20284
First continuously-crewed commercial station6
Multiple commercial stations operating simultaneously8
Large-scale permanent LEO habitation (100+ continuous residents)12
Commercially self-sustaining LEO economy (profitable without a government anchor tenantAnchor tenantA large, reliable customer — often a government — whose guaranteed business makes a venture financially viable.)16
In-Space Logistics & Refueling7/100

Orbital transfer, propellant transferPropellant transferMoving rocket fuel between vehicles or depots in orbit — needed to refuel for deep-space trips., and depots — built out until in-space logistics is a routinely-purchased commercial service, not a one-off demo.

Intra-vehicle propellant transferPropellant transferMoving rocket fuel between vehicles or depots in orbit — needed to refuel for deep-space trips. demonstrated (StarshipStarshipSpaceX's fully reusable super-heavy rocket, designed to slash the cost of reaching orbit and beyond. IFT-3) · 2024-03 source2
Ship-to-ship (inter-vehicle) propellant transferPropellant transferMoving rocket fuel between vehicles or depots in orbit — needed to refuel for deep-space trips. demo · ~20263
Operational propellant depotPropellant depotAn orbiting 'gas station' that stores fuel so spacecraft can top up before heading farther out. in orbit5
Routine orbital refueling enabling beyond-LEO missions8
Commercially-priced, routinely-purchased in-space logistics12
CislunarCislunarThe region of space between Earth and the Moon, including lunar orbit — the arena J Mission tracks. Transport15/100

Cargo and crew between Earth and the Moon — from first commercial landers to routine transport that is economically self-sustaining, not government-dependent.

First commercial lunar landing attempt (IM-1, partial) · 2024-02 source1
First fully successful commercial soft landing (Firefly Blue Ghost 1) · 2025-03 source2
First crewed cislunarCislunarThe region of space between Earth and the Moon, including lunar orbit — the arena J Mission tracks. mission since Apollo (ArtemisArtemisNASA's program to return humans to the Moon and build a sustained lunar presence. II) · 2026-04 source3
Regular CLPS cadence (≥4 landings/yr)3
Crewed lunar landing (ArtemisArtemisNASA's program to return humans to the Moon and build a sustained lunar presence. IV; Artemis III rescoped to a LEO lander demo, Feb 2026) · ~20285
Sustained crewed lunar-surface presence (base camp)7
Commercial crewed cislunarCislunarThe region of space between Earth and the Moon, including lunar orbit — the arena J Mission tracks. transport8
Economically self-sustaining cislunarCislunarThe region of space between Earth and the Moon, including lunar orbit — the arena J Mission tracks. transport (not government-dependent)12
Lunar Surface Infrastructure0/100

Comms/PNT relays, power, and habitats — standing infrastructure that ultimately operates as commercial service, not a government installation.

First lunar comms/PNT relay operational (ESA Lunar Pathfinder) · ~20272
Multi-asset lunar relay initial ops (Moonlight / NASA LCRNS) · ~20283
4-node lunar nav constellation (LANS) coverage4
Surface power infrastructure deployed5
Permanent crewed surface habitat8
Commercially operated lunar-surface infrastructure12
ISRU & Resource Use0/100

Turning lunar ice and regolith into water, oxygen, and propellant — the goal isn't a demo, it's ISRU that's economically cheaper than shipping from Earth.

Lunar volatiles measured in situ (subsurface drill + mass spec)1
Water/oxygen extraction demonstrated3
Pilot-scale ISRU production6
ISRU propellant production supporting missions10
ISRU economically cheaper than Earth resupply at scale14
Economic Self-Sufficiency13/100

The proof it's an economy and not a program: how much off-Earth activity pays for itself with non-government revenue. CSIS's central doubt — and the hardest pillar.

A commercially self-sustaining space business exists (LEO comms / launch) · ongoing source2
Private capital funding space ventures at scale (Space Capital tracks record annual investment) · ongoing source2
First non-government (commercial) revenue from cislunarCislunarThe region of space between Earth and the Moon, including lunar orbit — the arena J Mission tracks. activity4
A cislunarCislunarThe region of space between Earth and the Moon, including lunar orbit — the arena J Mission tracks. activity profitable without government funding8
CislunarCislunarThe region of space between Earth and the Moon, including lunar orbit — the arena J Mission tracks. private-sector activity exceeds government funding (self-sustaining)14

0–100 distance to a self-sustaining cislunarCislunarThe region of space between Earth and the Moon, including lunar orbit — the arena J Mission tracks. economy · 7 pillars, weighted · continuous indicators (GCATGCATThe General Catalog of Artificial Space Objects — an authoritative launch and payload catalog kept by astronomer Jonathan McDowell.) normalized distance-to-target + cited milestone checklists (OECD/JRCOECD / EC-JRC handbookThe standard recipe for building a composite indicator: a stated framework, explicit normalization, and transparent weights.) · editorial composite, not a forecast

Launch Cadence Index

175orbital YTD 2026
~316 projected · record 2025: 324Method · Launch Library 2 (live) + SpaceNews (excl. suborbital Starship)

SpaceX Dominance

49% of launches
2025: 50.9%Method · Launch Library 2 (live) + SpaceNews

Space-Economy Growth

65/100 · activity 2025
+24.2 vs 2024 · +25.3% YoYMethod · GCAT (McDowell) + Space-Track · computed in code; YoY min-max normalized, equal-weight (OECD/JRC)

Space News Heat

81/ 100 vs 21-day high
▼ coolingMethod · GDELT DOC 2.0 (article volume)

J Mission Space Stock Index

Tiingo · live · as of 2026-07-20

A 16-name, equal-weightEqual-weightGiving every company the same weight, so one giant doesn't dominate the average. basket of US-listed pure-playPure-play (space company)A company whose business is mostly space, not a big conglomerate with a small space side. space companies, rebasedRebased to 100Setting the starting point to 100 so the value reads directly as percent change — 120 means up 20%. to 100 on 2024-01-02 and chain-linkedChain-linkedSplicing an index across membership changes (like a new IPO) so additions don't cause an artificial jump.through IPOs. The number that matters isn’t the level — it’s how the cohort runs relative to the broad market. Not investment advice.

Index level600.7+500.7 since base
vs S&P 500+272.3%relative · SPY at 161.3
vs Nasdaq-100+243.2%relative · QQQ at 175.0
BreadthBreadthThe share of companies that are up since tracking began — how broad the move is.81%of names above entry
1001502003005007001000202420252026
Space basketS&P 500 (SPYSPY (S&P 500)A fund tracking the S&P 500, the broad benchmark of large US companies.)Nasdaq-100 (QQQQQQ (Nasdaq-100)A fund tracking the Nasdaq-100, a tech-heavy US stock benchmark.)Log scaleLog scaleA chart axis where each step multiplies (100 → 200 → 400), so big percentage moves look comparable across the range. · rebased to 100 at 2024-01-02

DispersionDispersionThe spread between the best and worst performers in the basket. — total return since base / IPO

RKLB+1138.0%
ASTS+1083.9%
PL+830.7%
LUNR+486.0%
ECHO+475.0%
RDW+190.5%
GSAT+182.8%
VSAT+147.9%
SATL+130.3%
BKSY+98.0%
KRMN+49.4%
SPIR+41.6%
IRDM+20.5%
SPCX-25.5%
VOYG-55.8%
FLY-67.4%
Tracked · excluded from the index
SIDU-74.9%SPCE-94.6%MNTS-98.9%
Micro-caps — kept out of the equal-weight basket because dilution / reverse-split swings would distort it.

Sub-sector sub-indexes

In-Space Infrastructure792.6
Launch790.8
Lunar586.0
Comms / Direct-to-Cell482.0
Earth Observation375.2
Stations44.2

Method · equal-weight average of split/dividend-adjusted price ratios, chain-linked at membership changes (OECD index practice). Prices are used to compute the index internally; we publish only the index level and percentage returns — never raw prices. Micro-caps excluded from the headline. SpaceX (SPCX) has been a constituent since its first trading day, June 12, 2026. Data sourced by Tiingo.

Methodology & Components

Launch Cadence IndexHow busy is orbit, and are we on record pace?

175 orbital launches so far this year (day 202 of 2026); on pace for ~316 vs the all-time record of 324 (2025).

Method · Launch Library 2 (live) + SpaceNews (excl. suborbital Starship)

SpaceX DominanceHow much of global launch is SpaceX?

SpaceX has flown 86 of 175 global orbital launches this year (~49.1%; 2025: 50.9%). On mass to orbitUpmassThe total mass of payloads launched to orbit — a measure of how much we're actually lifting into space., SpaceX's own investor filings (S-1S-1 filingThe financial document a company files with US regulators before going public — a cited primary source.) claim >80% every year since 2023 — we present the launch-count share, not a disputed tonnage.

2026 SpaceX launches: 862026 global launches: 175Share of mass to orbitUpmassThe total mass of payloads launched to orbit — a measure of how much we're actually lifting into space.: >80% (SpaceX filings)

Method · Launch Library 2 (live) + SpaceNews

Space-Economy GrowthHow fast is the real space economy growing?

A 0–100 compositeComposite indexA single score blended from several different measures. of 6 real-activity streams for the latest full year (2025) — orbital launches, active launch providers, satellites deployed, upmass to orbitUpmassThe total mass of payloads launched to orbit — a measure of how much we're actually lifting into space., crewed launches, and satellites on orbit — each measured year-over-yearYoY (year-over-year)Compared with the same point one year earlier., then min-max normalizedMin-max normalizationRescaling each measure to a 0–100 range over its own history so no single volatile number dominates a composite. over its 2016–2025 history so no single high-variance stream dominates (OECD/JRCOECD / EC-JRC handbookThe standard recipe for building a composite indicator: a stated framework, explicit normalization, and transparent weights. distance-to-range). Activity grew ~+25.3% in 2025. Market performance is tracked separately in the J Mission Space Stock Index. Source: GCATGCATThe General Catalog of Artificial Space Objects — an authoritative launch and payload catalog kept by astronomer Jonathan McDowell. (McDowell) + Space-TrackSpace-TrackThe US Space Force's official catalog of objects in orbit.. A private-investment and commercial-vs-government stream join later.

Orbital launches YoY: +26% · score 83/100Active launch providers YoY: +20.7% · score 81/100Satellites deployed YoY: +59.5% · score 38/100Upmass to orbitUpmassThe total mass of payloads launched to orbit — a measure of how much we're actually lifting into space. YoY: +32.6% · score 72/100Crewed launches YoY: -11.1% · score 14/100Satellites on orbit YoY: +23.9% · score 100/100

Method · GCAT (McDowell) + Space-Track · computed in code; YoY min-max normalized, equal-weight (OECD/JRC)

Space News HeatHow hot is space in the global conversation?

Share of worldwide monitored news mentioning spaceflight, normalized against the trailing 21-day high. An attention indicator, not ground truth — GDELTGDELTA global project that monitors world news; used here to gauge how much coverage spaceflight is getting. volume/tone are approximate.

Method · GDELT DOC 2.0 (article volume)

Prediction-Market Milestone Board

Manifold · odds, not forecasts