J Mission

The Indexes

Deterministic space-economy indicators. Every figure is computed in code from cited sources and stamped 2026-06-06 — numbers are never invented; the commentary is AI-assisted. Not financial advice. See Methodology & Data Sources.

The J Mission Index · Flagship

How far are we to a self-sustaining cislunar economy?

12/ 10011/38 milestones · data 2025

Earth-to-Orbit Access 16.7%28

LEO Commercialization & Habitation 16.7%8

In-Space Logistics & Refueling 11.1%7

Cislunar Transport 16.7%15

Lunar Surface Infrastructure 11.1%6

ISRU & Resource Use 11.1%3

Economic Self-Sufficiency 16.7%13

Earth-to-Orbit Access28/100

Cheap, abundant access to orbit — gated on cost per kg, because high cadence and reusability are only means to that end. You don't know access is solved until the price falls.

Cost to orbit 2,700 $/kg to LEO → 28/100 toward target · Falcon 9 list price (reused), ~2025; $100/kg abundance target is the aspirational anchor (Starship-class, unproven) (as of 2026-06) source28

Routine orbital-class first-stage reuse (Falcon 9) · 2017-03 source3

Fully & rapidly reusable orbital vehicle operational (Starship) · expected7

Launch cadence (scale signal) 325 launches/yr → 26/100 toward target · GCAT (J. McDowell)26

Upmass to orbit (scale signal) 2,833 tonnes/yr → 26/100 toward target · GCAT (J. McDowell)26

LEO Commercialization & Habitation8/100

From a single government station to long-term, high-scale habitation — and ultimately a LEO economy that pays for itself without a government anchor tenant.

Continuous human presence in LEO (ISS) · 2000-11 source2

First commercial free-flyer module in orbit (Vast Haven-1) · 2025 source2

First independent commercial station operational · ~20284

First continuously-crewed commercial station6

Multiple commercial stations operating simultaneously8

Large-scale permanent LEO habitation (100+ continuous residents)12

Commercially self-sustaining LEO economy (profitable without a government anchor tenant)16

In-Space Logistics & Refueling7/100

Orbital transfer, propellant transfer, and depots — built out until in-space logistics is a routinely-purchased commercial service, not a one-off demo.

Intra-vehicle propellant transfer demonstrated (Starship IFT-3) · 2024-03 source2

Ship-to-ship (inter-vehicle) propellant transfer demo · ~20263

Operational propellant depot in orbit5

Routine orbital refueling enabling beyond-LEO missions8

Commercially-priced, routinely-purchased in-space logistics12

Cislunar Transport15/100

Cargo and crew between Earth and the Moon — from first commercial landers to routine transport that is economically self-sustaining, not government-dependent.

First commercial lunar landing attempt (IM-1, partial) · 2024-02 source1

First fully successful commercial soft landing (Firefly Blue Ghost 1) · 2025-03 source2

First crewed cislunar mission since Apollo (Artemis II) · 2026 source3

Regular CLPS cadence (≥4 landings/yr)3

Crewed lunar landing (Artemis III) · ~20275

Sustained crewed lunar-surface presence (base camp)7

Commercial crewed cislunar transport8

Economically self-sustaining cislunar transport (not government-dependent)12

Lunar Surface Infrastructure6/100

Comms/PNT relays, power, and habitats — standing infrastructure that ultimately operates as commercial service, not a government installation.

First lunar comms/PNT relay operational (ESA Lunar Pathfinder) · 2026 source2

Multi-asset lunar relay initial ops (Moonlight / NASA LCRNS) · ~20283

4-node lunar nav constellation (LANS) coverage4

Surface power infrastructure deployed5

Permanent crewed surface habitat8

Commercially operated lunar-surface infrastructure12

ISRU & Resource Use3/100

Turning lunar ice and regolith into water, oxygen, and propellant — the goal isn't a demo, it's ISRU that's economically cheaper than shipping from Earth.

Lunar volatiles measured in situ (IM-2 / PRIME-1 drill) · 2025 source1

Water/oxygen extraction demonstrated3

Pilot-scale ISRU production6

ISRU propellant production supporting missions10

ISRU economically cheaper than Earth resupply at scale14

Economic Self-Sufficiency13/100

The proof it's an economy and not a program: how much off-Earth activity pays for itself with non-government revenue. CSIS's central doubt — and the hardest pillar.

A commercially self-sustaining space business exists (LEO comms / launch) · ongoing source2

Private capital funding space ventures at scale (Space Capital tracks record annual investment) · ongoing source2

First non-government (commercial) revenue from cislunar activity4

A cislunar activity profitable without government funding8

Cislunar private-sector activity exceeds government funding (self-sustaining)14

0–100 distance to a self-sustaining cislunar economy · 6 pillars, weighted · continuous indicators (GCAT) normalized distance-to-target + cited milestone checklists (OECD/JRC) · editorial composite, not a forecast

Launch Cadence Index

135orbital YTD 2026

~314 proj · 2025: 324Method · LL2 (live) + SpaceNews / McDowell GCAT

SpaceX Dominance

49% of launches

2025: 50.9%Method · LL2 (live) + SpaceNews

Space-Economy Growth

65/100 · activity 2025

+24.3 vs 2024 · +25.3% YoYMethod · GCAT (McDowell) + Space-Track · computed in code; YoY min-max normalized, equal-weight (OECD/JRC)

Space News Heat

—/ 100

updatingMethod · GDELT DOC 2.0

J Mission Space Stock Index

Tiingo · live · as of 2026-06-05

A 15-name, equal-weight basket of US-listed pure-play space companies, rebased to 100 on 2024-01-02and chain-linked through IPOs. The number that matters isn’t the level — it’s how the cohort runs relative to the broad market. Not investment advice.

Index level864.4+764.4 since base

vs S&P 500+704.1SPY at 160.3

vs Nasdaq-100+687.2QQQ at 177.3

Breadth87%of names above entry

Space basketS&P 500 (SPY)Nasdaq-100 (QQQ)Log scale · rebased to 100 at 2024-01-02

Dispersion — total return since base / IPO

RKLB+1973.1%

ASTS+1829.9%

PL+1253.8%

LUNR+1144.1%

SATS+640.2%

RDW+523.3%

SATL+359.4%

BKSY+214.9%

GSAT+190.5%

VSAT+139.6%

SPIR+121.7%

KRMN+64.5%

IRDM+23.0%

VOYG-26.4%

FLY-40.2%

Sub-sector sub-indexes

Launch1286

Lunar1244

In-Space Infrastructure1025

Comms / Direct-to-Cell664.6

Earth Observation587.4

Stations73.6

Method · equal-weight average of split/dividend-adjusted price ratios, chain-linked at membership changes (OECD index practice). Source: Tiingo (adjusted close) · computed in code. Micro-caps excluded from the headline. SpaceX enters as a constituent when it lists.

Methodology & Components

Launch Cadence IndexHow busy is orbit, and are we on record pace?

135 orbital launches so far this year (day 157 of 2026); on pace for ~314 vs the 2025 record of 324.

Method · LL2 (live) + SpaceNews / McDowell GCAT

SpaceX DominanceHow much of global launch is SpaceX?

SpaceX has flown 66 of 135 global orbital launches this year (~48.9%). On mass to orbit, SpaceX's S-1 claims >80% every year since 2023 — present the share, not a disputed tonnage.

2026 SpaceX launches: 662026 global launches: 135Share of mass to orbit: >80% (SpaceX S-1)

Method · LL2 (live) + SpaceNews

Space-Economy GrowthHow fast is the real space economy growing?

A 0–100 composite of 6 real-activity streams for the latest full year (2025) — orbital launches, active launch providers, satellites deployed, upmass to orbit, crewed launches, and satellites on orbit — each measured year-over-year, then min-max normalized over its 2016–2025 history so no single high-variance stream dominates (OECD/JRC distance-to-range). Activity grew ~+25.3% in 2025. Market performance is tracked separately in the J Mission Space Stock Index. Source: GCAT (McDowell) + Space-Track. A private-investment and commercial-vs-government stream join later.

Orbital launches YoY: +26% · norm 83Active launch providers YoY: +20.7% · norm 81Satellites deployed YoY: +59.5% · norm 38Upmass to orbit YoY: +32.6% · norm 73Crewed launches YoY: -11.1% · norm 14Satellites on orbit YoY: +23.9% · norm 100

Method · GCAT (McDowell) + Space-Track · computed in code; YoY min-max normalized, equal-weight (OECD/JRC)

Space News HeatHow hot is space in the global conversation?

Share of worldwide monitored news mentioning spaceflight (GDELT). Refreshing — GDELT rate-limits aggressively; populates on the next successful pull.

Method · GDELT DOC 2.0

Prediction-Market Milestone Board

Manifold · odds, not forecasts

Will SpaceX's Starship Superheavy launch vehicle reach 500 total successful launches by Jan 1st 2030?9%Will SpaceX send a Starship to Mars before 2028?2%Will SpaceX IPO before the end of 2026?98%Will Elon Musk be alive on the day a human walks on Mars?50%Will Starship reach Mars by 2030?17%Will a human land on the moon by 2028?3%Will Elon Musk ever walk on Mars?12%Will a human astronaut land on the moon before 2027 ?1%