Methodology & Data Sources

Counts orbital launches so far this year (Launch Library 2) and projects a full-year pace, compared against the historical annual record (GCAT / SpaceNews). It answers the simplest question in spaceflight — how often are we going to space — and whether this year is on track to beat the last.

SpaceX's share of this year's global orbital launches (Launch Library 2). We present the launch-count share rather than a disputed mass-to-orbit tonnage; SpaceX's own S-1 claims >80% of upmass since 2023, which we note but don't assert as a precise figure.

Live odds from open Manifold prediction markets on a set of spaceflight milestones. These are market odds — a crowd's money-weighted guess — not forecasts and not our opinion.

An equal-weight basket of US-listed pure-play space companies, rebased to 100 on January 2, 2024, using split- and dividend-adjusted closing prices (Tiingo). Equal-weight — so no single mega-cap dominates — and chain-linked through IPOs, so a new listing never causes an artificial jump. The headline isn't the level; it's the basket's performance relative to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100. We also show internal dispersion (winners vs. losers), sub-sector sub-indexes, and breadth (how many names are above their start). Micro-caps are tracked but kept out of the headline so dilution/reverse-split noise can't distort it.

A 0–100 composite of real-activity growth — orbital launches, active launch providers, satellites deployed, upmass to orbit, and crewed launches (GCAT), plus satellites on orbit (Space-Track). Each stream is measured year-over-year, then min-max normalized over its own history so no single high-variance stream dominates (the OECD/JRC distance-to-range method). Market performance deliberately lives in the Space Stock Index, not here — this measures activity, not sentiment.

The share of worldwide monitored news mentioning spaceflight (GDELT), normalized against the trailing 21-day high. An attention indicator — useful for spotting spikes — not a measure of importance, and approximate by nature.

A 0–100 measure of progress toward a space economy that pays for itself — not just one with a lot of activity. Seven weighted pillars (Earth-to-orbit access, LEO commercialization & habitation, in-space logistics, cislunar transport, lunar-surface infrastructure, ISRU, and economic self-sufficiency) combine continuous indicators with cited milestone checklists. Three principles keep it honest: cost gates access (Earth-to-orbit is anchored on cost per kilogram, so reusability and cadence can't 'solve' it until the price actually falls); every pillar tops out at an economic milestone (self-sustaining without subsidy), not a government-funded demo; and economic self-sufficiency is its own pillar. The anchor for 100 is deliberately aspirational, so the index reads low and early — an honest reflection of how far the climb still is. Continuous indicators come from GCAT and Space-Track; milestones are cited point-in-time facts with evidence links, edited in code.