Methodology & Data Sources

Counts orbital launches so far this year (Launch Library 2Launch Library 2 — A free, community-run database of worldwide rocket launches, run by The Space Devs.) and projects a full-year pace, compared against the historical annual record (GCATGCAT — The General Catalog of Artificial Space Objects — an authoritative launch and payload catalog kept by astronomer Jonathan McDowell. / SpaceNews). It answers the simplest question in spaceflight — how often are we going to space — and whether this year is on track to beat the last.

SpaceX's share of this year's global orbital launches (Launch Library 2Launch Library 2 — A free, community-run database of worldwide rocket launches, run by The Space Devs.). We present the launch-count share rather than a disputed mass-to-orbit tonnage; SpaceX's own S-1S-1 filing — The financial document a company files with US regulators before going public — a cited primary source. claims >80% of upmassUpmass — The total mass of payloads launched to orbit — a measure of how much we're actually lifting into space. since 2023, which we note but don't assert as a precise figure.

Live odds from open Manifold prediction markets on a set of spaceflight milestones. These are market odds — a crowd's money-weighted guess — not forecasts and not our opinion.

An equal-weightEqual-weight — Giving every company the same weight, so one giant doesn't dominate the average. basket of US-listed pure-play space companies, rebased to 100Rebased to 100 — Setting the starting point to 100 so the value reads directly as percent change — 120 means up 20%. on January 2, 2024, using split- and dividend-adjusted closing prices (Tiingo). Equal-weight — so no single mega-cap dominates — and chain-linkedChain-linked — Splicing an index across membership changes (like a new IPO) so additions don't cause an artificial jump. through IPOs, so a new listing never causes an artificial jump. The headline isn't the level; it's the basket's performance relative to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 — expressed as the percent the basket is ahead of (or behind) each benchmark, not a raw point gap. We also show internal dispersionDispersion — The spread between the best and worst performers in the basket. (winners vs. losers), sub-sector sub-indexes, and breadthBreadth — The share of companies that are up since tracking began — how broad the move is. (how many names are above their start). Micro-caps are tracked but kept out of the headline so dilution/reverse-split noise can't distort it.

A 0–100 compositeComposite index — A single score blended from several different measures. of real-activity growth — orbital launches, active launch providers, satellites deployed, upmass to orbitUpmass — The total mass of payloads launched to orbit — a measure of how much we're actually lifting into space., and crewed launches (GCATGCAT — The General Catalog of Artificial Space Objects — an authoritative launch and payload catalog kept by astronomer Jonathan McDowell.), plus satellites on orbit (Space-TrackSpace-Track — The US Space Force's official catalog of objects in orbit.). Each stream is measured year-over-yearYoY (year-over-year) — Compared with the same point one year earlier., then min-max normalizedMin-max normalization — Rescaling each measure to a 0–100 range over its own history so no single volatile number dominates a composite. over its own history so no single high-variance stream dominates (the OECD/JRCOECD / EC-JRC handbook — The standard recipe for building a composite indicator: a stated framework, explicit normalization, and transparent weights. distance-to-range method). Market performance deliberately lives in the Space Stock Index, not here — this measures activity, not sentiment.

The share of worldwide monitored news mentioning spaceflight (GDELTGDELT — A global project that monitors world news; used here to gauge how much coverage spaceflight is getting.), normalized against the trailing 21-day high. An attention indicator — useful for spotting spikes — not a measure of importance, and approximate by nature.

A 0–100 measure of progress toward a space economy that pays for itself — not just one with a lot of activity. Seven weighted pillars (Earth-to-orbit access, LEO commercialization & habitation, in-space logistics, cislunarCislunar — The region of space between Earth and the Moon, including lunar orbit — the arena J Mission tracks. transport, lunar-surface infrastructure, ISRU, and economic self-sufficiency) combine continuous indicators with cited milestone checklists. Three principles keep it honest: cost gates access (Earth-to-orbit is anchored on cost per kilogram, so reusabilityReusability — Recovering and reflying rocket hardware instead of throwing it away — the key to cheaper access to space. and cadence can't 'solve' it until the price actually falls); every pillar tops out at an economic milestone (self-sustaining without subsidy), not a government-funded demo; and economic self-sufficiency is its own pillar. The anchor for 100 is deliberately aspirational, so the index reads low and early — an honest reflection of how far the climb still is. Continuous indicators come from GCATGCAT — The General Catalog of Artificial Space Objects — an authoritative launch and payload catalog kept by astronomer Jonathan McDowell. and Space-TrackSpace-Track — The US Space Force's official catalog of objects in orbit.; milestones are cited point-in-time facts with evidence links, edited in code.